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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."